A DSM-based decision-support framework for proactive risk identification in pre-licensing project processes

Pre-licensing architectural design is iterative and cyclical, and linear project management models cannot adequately explain it. This paper presents a decision-support framework that quantifies iteration and delay risks from task-stakeholder interactions through a Design Structure Matrix (DSM)-based model. Using an embedded four-case design, task dependencies and feedback intensities were modelled in a weighted DSM drawing on project logs, revision records, and coordination notes. DSM metrics were combined with past delay impact and revision frequency in a Weighted Scoring Model, yielding Total Risk Scores (TRS) per task and Normalised Risk Scores (NRS) for inter-phase comparison. NRS thresholds, derived from natural distribution gaps, flag high-risk nodes early and inform intervention priorities. Robustness was verified through five-scenario sensitivity analysis (Spearman ρ ≥ 0.866) and a single-variable transferability test on a fifth project (Spearman ρ = 0.977; 80.8% class stability). The framework converts process data into traceable risk indicators for BIM Execution Plans and digital twin environments.