Occurrence Characteristics and Disaster Risk Assessment of Major Meteorological Disasters During the Spring Wheat Growth Period in Inner Mongolia

Inner Mongolia is the dominant spring wheat production area in northern China and a core commodity grain supply base. Against the background of global warming, meteorological disasters, such as drought, dry-hot winds, and frost, are occurring more frequently and with increasing overlap, posing a threat to stable spring wheat production. This study covers the period 1961–2020 and draws on observational data from 107 meteorological stations alongside agricultural and socioeconomic data. Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, dry-hot wind index, and frost index, we constructed a regional disaster index system encompassing drought, dry-hot winds, and frost. Comprehensive risk assessment and zoning were conducted across four dimensions: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. The results showed that: (1) Temporally, the study area exhibited a significant warm and dry trend, with intensifying aridification across all growth periods and an abrupt change concentrated in the 1990s. The occurrence range of dry-hot wind trended upward, while that of frost trended downward. (2) Spatially, the comprehensive hazard presented a pattern dominated by drought-dry hot wind in the west, drought-frost in the east, and multiple disasters overlapping in the central part. (3) High exposure occurred in major production areas, such as eastern Hulunbuir, Xing’an League, and Bayannur, while vulnerability followed the pattern of central part > eastern > western regions. (4) Comprehensive risk analysis showed that sub-high and high-risk areas were concentrated in central Xilingol League and parts of Hulunbuir, whereas low- and sub-moderate-risk areas occurred in irrigated agricultural regions west of Baotou. The zoning results were consistent with the spatial distributions of yield reduction rate and vulnerability. This study clarifies the spatiotemporal evolution and risk differentiation mechanisms of meteorological disasters affecting spring wheat in Inner Mongolia, providing a scientific basis for disaster prevention, mitigation, and climate-adaptive spring wheat production.