Arsenic and fertility: Evidence from the 1900 English beer-poisoning epidemic

In 1900, thousands of people in England were poisoned by arsenic. The source was beer contaminated by tainted sugar. This paper examines how the poisoning affected birth rates in the affected areas, using an event study difference-in-difference design. The results show that the arsenic-in-beer epidemic caused a 10% drop in births in 1901, but the effect was short-lived. After about 28 weeks, birth rates returned to pre-epidemic levels. Evidence from the timing of the effect and a range of alternative mechanisms is most consistent with the epidemic reducing conceptions or early pregnancies, rather than operating through economic disruption or later gestational harm.