System Strategy for Guaranteed Complex Engineering System Functioning in Real Operating Conditions

There is proposed system strategy for the guaranteed operation of a complex engi-neering system (CES), which is oriented to the timely detection and elimination of the reasons for the possible transition of an operational state to an inoperative based on a system analysis of multifactorial risks of abnormal situations, reliable estimating the margin of permissible risk for different CES operation modes and forecasting the key indicators of the object's survivability for a specified operation period. There are given the models for forecasting and estimating of margin of permissible risk, which compose the basis for the implementation of the proposed strategy as the information platform for technical diagnostics. As an example, the functioning of the closed circulating water supply system is presented.