Predictive Population Dynamics of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Salmonella enterica on Plants: a Mechanistic Mathematical Model Based on Weather Parameters and Bacterial State

Fruits and vegetables are important sources of foodborne disease. Novel approaches to improve the microbial safety of produce are greatly lacking. Given that bacterial behavior on plant surfaces is highly dependent on weather factors, risk assessment informed by meteorological data may be an effective tool to integrate into strategies to prevent crop contamination. A mathematical model was developed to predict the population trends of pathogenic E. coli and S. enterica, two major causal agents of foodborne disease associated with produce, on leaves. Our model is based on weather parameters and rates of switching between the active (growing) and inactive (nongrowing) bacterial state resulting from prevailing environmental conditions on leaf surfaces. We demonstrate that the model has the ability to accurately predict dynamics of enteric pathogens on leaves and, notably, sizes of populations of pathogenic E. coli over time after inoculation onto the leaves of young lettuce plants in the field.