Conflict in Context: Arms Transfers and Third World Rivalries during the Cold War

I investigate the impact of superpower arms transfers on two enduring Third World rivalries. A time-series analysis suggests that Soviet and U.S. supplies to interstate rivals in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf are not parallel in their effects. Soviet transfers to Egypt and Syria exacerbated conflict in the Middle East, while U.S. transfers to Israel show no such propensity. There is also some evidence that U.S. arms supplies to Iran under Shah Pahlevi may have had a dampening effect on the Iran-Iraq rivalry. An action-reaction dynamic is apparent in superpower transfers to both the Middle East and Persian Gulf, although the reactive tendency was more pronounced in the U.S. policy. These results lend credence to a conceptual framework that highlights the congruent security orientations of arms suppliers and recipients.