It is often assumed that changes in federal spending in a congressional district affect the incumbent's prospect of reelection. This study tests that assumption, using cross-section data to analyze voting for candidates for election to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1976, 1978, and 1980. While variables reflecting party affiliation, the incumbent's vote in the last election, and scandal associated with incumbents are important determinants of the vote, changes in both local federal spending on construction and federal civilian employment in the incumbent's district are shown to have no effect on the share of the vote going to incumbents. They also have no effect on campaign expenditures by either challengers or incumbents.
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Feldman et al. (1984) studied this question.
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