Impact of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake on community health: ecological time series on transient increase in indirect mortality and recovery of health and long-term-care system

BACKGROUND: The objectives were to clarify the trend in the cause-specific mortality rate and changes in health and long-term-care use after the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. METHODS: We obtained the following data from national sources: the number of deaths by cause, age and month; the amount of healthcare insurance expenditures by type of services, age and month; the amount of long-term-care insurance expenditures by type of services, age, care need and month. We estimated increase in standardised mortality rate postearthquake compared with pre-earthquake, and change in the standardised amount of health and long-term-care insurance expenditures post-earthquake compared with pre-earthquake in three severely affected prefectures, Iwate, Miyagi and Fukushima, by the adjustment for trends in the other prefectures. RESULTS: The risk of indirect mortality increased in the month of the earthquake (relative risk (RR) with 95% CI 1.20 (1.13 to 1.28) for those 60-69 years of age, 1.25 (1.17 to 1.32) for 70-79 years, and 1.33 (1.27 to 1.38) for 80 years and older). The amount of health and long-term-care insurance expenditures decreased among elderly persons in the month of the earthquake, and recovered to 95% of usual level within 1-5 months. Among cities and towns hit by tsunami, higher percentage of households flooded was associated with higher risk of indirect mortality (p<0.001), lower expenditures for outpatient medical care (p<0.001), and lower expenditures for home-care services (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed transient increase in indirect mortality and recovery of health and long-term-care system after the earthquake.