Linking species distribution models with population abundance to support adaptive fisheries management

Understanding how environmental variability structures essential fish habitat (EFH) is central to managing keystone populations in dynamic marine ecosystems. Using nearly three decades of standardized survey data (1994–2021) from the Adriatic Sea, we present the first basin‐scale, process‐based framework linking estimated habitat suitability and abundance for the European anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus . Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution models were coupled with quantile generalized additive models (QGAMs) to quantify spatiotemporal dynamics of EFH and identify environmental thresholds that regulate population expansion and contraction. Predicted habitat suitability was primarily driven by variation in bottom temperature and biotic interactions, with persistent core areas along the northern and central shelves. Quantile analyses revealed asymmetric abundance responses to environmental gradients, indicating stronger constraints under unfavorable hydrographic regimes. This integrative approach bridges potential habitat and population dynamics, offering transferable tools for climate‐ready, ecosystem‐based fisheries management.