Visitor Numbers and Feasibility Studies. Predicting Visitor Numbers to Danish Open‐air Museums using GIS and Multivariate Statistics

Through the 1990s massive investments were made in developing tourist attractions with historical content in Denmark. Many of these centres were based on assumptions of very high annual visitor numbers, often in the 100,000 range, and thus a self sustained economy, once the initial investments were made. These expectations have only rarely been met, and many of these projects now suffer from severe economic problems. This research note addresses the problem of assessing visitor numbers. Applying the field of predictive modelling to the problem, and using a modern GIS‐based approach, it is demonstrated how more sound assessments of potential visitor numbers can be made and incorporated in feasibility studies for future projects.