Probabilistic Human Pilot Approach: Application to Microburst Escape Maneuver

A new probabilistic approach is developed to study the effect of a group of pilots with a range of skill, training, and experience. Our probabilistic approach is based on the conception that there exists a set of parameters in a single pilot model that characterizes different aspects of human pilot behavior and reaction, and each of these characteristic parameters has a stochastic variation in a group of pilots. Thus, a group of pilots can be modeled by treating the characteristic parameters as random variables that follow suitable probability density functions. The probabilistic pilot model in combination with the Monte Carlo simulation technique is applied to study the sensitivity of three different microburst escape guidance strategies to human factors. In our study, both the human parameters as well as the microburst parameters are varied based on the probability density functions available in the literature and the intuition of the authors.