GAT-BiGRU-TPA City Pair 4D Trajectory Prediction Model Based on Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network

With the rapid expansion of the civil aviation industry, the surge in flight numbers has led to increasingly pronounced issues of air route congestion and flight conflicts. 4D trajectory prediction, by dynamically adjusting aircraft paths in real time, can prevent air route collisions, alleviate air traffic pressure, and ensure flight safety. Therefore, this paper proposes a combined model—GAT-BiGRU-TPA—based on the Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Network (STGNN) framework to achieve refined 4D trajectory prediction. This model integrates Graph Attention Networks (GAT) to extract multidimensional spatial features, Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Units (BiGRU) to capture temporal dependencies, and incorporates a Temporal Pattern Attention (TPA) mechanism to emphasize learning critical temporal patterns. This enables the extraction of key information and the deep fusion of spatio-temporal features. Experiments were conducted using real trajectory data, employing a grid search to optimize the observation window size and label length. Results demonstrate that under optimal model parameters (observation window: 30, labels: 4), the proposed model achieves a 45.72% reduction in mean Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and a 43.40% decrease in Mean Absolute Error (MAE) across longitude, latitude, and altitude compared to the optimal baseline BiLSTM model. Prediction accuracy significantly outperforms multiple mainstream benchmark models. In summary, the proposed GAT-BiGRU-TPA model demonstrates superior accuracy in 4D trajectory prediction, providing an effective approach for refined trajectory management in complex airspace environments.