Reconstructing Causal Reasoning in Hybrid Governance: A Realist Program Theory Evaluation of the Dutch Function Mix

This study addresses a central challenge in contemporary evaluation: how to assess the plausibility of causal reasoning underlying policy interventions in complex governance systems. Using the Dutch function mix reform as an illustrative case, the study reconstructs and evaluates its program theory (PT), which aims to improve teacher retention and instructional quality through differentiated roles, professional recognition, and financial incentives. Program theory reconstruction (PTR) is combined with realist evaluation and argumentation analysis to make evaluative reasoning explicit and to assess the coherence and contextual plausibility of causal assumptions. Findings indicate that the PT is internally coherent but contextually fragile, with key mechanisms operating only under specific enabling conditions, including leadership, human resource management (HRM) capacity, and organizational trust. The study demonstrates how PTR can function as a meta-evaluative framework that enhances transparency in causal reasoning and supports learning-oriented evaluation.