Compounding impacts of prolonged drought and onset of the Russian-Ukrainian war on food security and cleaner cooking fuel use in Nairobi, Kenya in 2022

In 2022, the Russian-Ukrainian war onset increased global fuel and food prices. Additionally, a multi-season drought in Kenya reached peak severity in 2022. We aimed to quantify the impacts of these climatic and energy-related shocks on energy/food security in an informal settlement in Nairobi, Kenya. We leveraged real-time smart meter data and administered surveys from September–October 2022 to 701 pay-as-you-go liquefied petroleum gas (PAYG LPG) customers. Using mixed effects (repeated monthly measurements) log-linear regression, we compared PAYG LPG consumption/payment behaviors before (July–October 2021) and during a > 15% inflationary food price period (July–October 2022). We found that three-quarters (74%; n = 520) of participants reported changing the foods they cooked, skipping more meals, and/or reducing PAYG LPG consumption between 2021 and 2022. Between July–October 2021 and July–October 2022, PAYG LPG prices increased by 16% (214 Kenyan shilling (KES)/kg ($1.53USD/kg) to 249 KES/kg ($1.78USD/kg). During the same period, customers decreased their PAYG LPG use from an average of 12.8 to 8.3 h/month and lowered their frequency of use from an average of 19 to 8 days/month. The multivariable modeling revealed that married couples with no children, with the female in her twenties and employed in the informal sector with a household income of 136–232 USD/month decreased their PAYG LPG consumption by an average of 0.46 kg/capita/month, from 1.47 (95% CI 0.87, 2.49) in July–October 2021 to 1.01 (95% CI 0.60, 1.70) in July–October 2022. Prolonged drought and overseas conflict in 2022 led to substantial declines in food security and LPG consumption in Nairobi, Kenya.