The Time Window for a Substantive Breakthrough in Artificial Intelligence

This is **A Public Pre‑Registration P23, Version 1.0**, the authoritative governing text. It constitutes a two‑sided falsifiable prediction about the time window for substantive artificial‑intelligence breakthrough. Version 1.0 is frozen upon public deposition. Any amendment to criteria, thresholds, time‑window or adjudication rules after public deposit voids this prediction. Only this first‑deposited English document is the authoritative governing text. Chinese translation may be archived later as subsequent reading‑only version and shall not alter any registered clauses. This pre‑registration is derived from §3.2, Chapter 1 of the published monograph *Turning Point: The Nonuniformity Emergence Framework and the Survival Window of Human Civilization* (ISBN 978‑1‑998632‑94‑7, first published June 2026). A Chinese‑language domestic edition titled *Survival Window of Human Civilization* has been submitted for publication; Chapter 1 in the Chinese edition shares the same original base material with further elaborations, without altering the core reasoning behind this pre‑registration. Evidence tier: Tier C, morphological extrapolation with untested mechanistic assumptions in‑between. Adjudication date: 31 January 2033. If the registrant fails to publish an adjudication statement within 90 days after the adjudication date, any publicly‑traceable third‑party may perform independent adjudication strictly following the rules laid down within this document. Outcomes: confirmed / falsified / non‑adjudicable. Non‑adjudicable status shall not be counted as confirmed prediction.