Tails of natural hazards

SEVERE storms, floods and earthquakes affect the lives of millions of people each year, and can have a devastating effect on the environment. Understanding when and where these and other natural hazards – such as landslides, extreme waves and forest fires – will strike next is therefore an outstanding challenge in the earth sciences. One way to tackle this problem is to figure out what actually causes extreme natural hazards. However, another fruitful approach is to examine the laws of chance.