This article examines forest change in the Brazilian Amazon in light of forest transition theory. We draw on satellite-based land cover data matched in a geographic information system (GIS) to census-based social and agricultural data for Brazilian municipalities at multiple time points. Subregions with distinct settlement histories serve as proxies for different stages along the forest transition, theorized to exhibit depletion of forest cover, eventually followed by a recovery. Satellite images allow for distinctions between primary (old-growth) and secondary (successional) forests, but the data indicate more successional forests than expected. We argue that biophysical impediments (e.g., poor soils) and social obstacles (e.g., capital scarcity) led to limited land settlement, low incomes, urbanization, and a shift from crops to pasture, resulting in the rapid expansion of secondary forests without primary forest depletion. These findings call for refinements in forest transition theory that can better account for land cover changes in tropical regions of non-OECD countries.
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Perz et al. (2003) studied this question.