How Stable is the Sense of Civic Duty to Vote? A Panel Study on the Individual-Level Stability of the Attitude

Since Riker and Ordeshook (1968) first modified the voter utility function to include “duty” as one of the terms, civic duty has been characterized as “the psychological benefit derived from following the injunctive norm of voting” (Gerber & Rogers, 2009, p. 181). Research has provided strong evidence that “people who believe that all citizens have the obligation to vote go to the polls more than those who do not hold this belief” (Harder & Krosnick, 2008, p. 536. See also Blais, 2000; Blais & Achen, 2018; Campbell, Converse, Miller, & Stokes, 1960; Clarke, Sanders, Stewart, & Whiteley, 2004). Work that includes civic duty among the predictors of electoral participation has generally assumed that civic duty is antecedent to turnout; as such, it affects voting behavior rather than being affected by it. Some studies challenge that view, arguing that, in fact, when asked in the context of a survey, individuals rationalize their perception of the duty to vote based on their previous participation, or not, in elections (Dowding, 2005; Matsusaka & Palda, 1999). In this study, we assess the temporal stability of the sense of civic duty and, by doing so, evaluate whether the public’s perception of civic duty does constitute a plausible antecedent to voting or not.1