Supplies of basic commodities cannot be taken for granted in the future. The prospects for peace in coming decades will depend on how the world adjusts to new constraints and new expectations regarding these commodities. Exponential growth cannot go on forever. This is realized not only from the quadrupling of oil prices, but also the prospect of eventual physical limitations to materials supply. Supplies of raw materials are being profoundly affected by the trend toward nationalization of foreign-owned mining properties and other measures to give effective control over natural resources to the host country. High energy prices are making prohibitively expensive the recovery of some low-grade ores and forcing reconsideration of energy-intensive processing methods. New concern about the environmental impact of mining, lumbering, and materials processing and increasing restriction of access to resources on public lands are also constraining materials production. Financial markets that have made capital raising difficult have also added to the conditions creating a new world of materials. It is remarkable that the cumulative impact of these developments has not yet disrupted the supply of materials in a major way. (MCW)
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Abelson et al. (1976) studied this question.