Quantitative Biomarkers, Genomic Assays, and Demographics Associated with Breast-Conserving Surgery Following Neoadjuvant Therapy in Early-Stage, Hormone Receptor-Positive, HER-Negative Breast Cancer

BACKGROUND: Given increased neoadjuvant therapy use in early-stage, hormone receptor (HR)-positive/HER2-negative breast cancer, we sought to quantify likelihood of breast-conserving surgery (BCS) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) or endocrine therapy (NET) as a function of ER%/PR%/Ki-67%, 21-gene recurrence scores (RS), or 70-gene risk groups. METHODS: We analyzed the 2010-2020 National Cancer Database. Surgery was categorized as "mastectomy/BCS." Logistic regression was performed. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) were per 10-unit increase in ER%/PR%/Ki-67%. RESULTS: Overall, 42.3% underwent BCS after NACT, whereas 64.0% did after NET. Increasing ER% (AOR = 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.94-0.97) or PR% (AOR=0.98, 95% CI 0.96-0.99) was associated with lower odds of BCS after NACT. Increasing Ki-67% was associated with greater odds of BCS (AOR = 1.07, 95% CI 1.04-1.10). Breast-conserving surgery rates increased by ~20 percentage points, with Ki-67% ≥15 or RS >20. Patients with a low (43.0%, AOR = 0.50, 95% CI 0.29-0.88) or intermediate (46.4%, AOR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.41-0.81) RS were less likely than patients with a high RS (65.0%) to undergo BCS after NACT. Increasing ER% was associated with higher odds of BCS after NET (AOR = 1.09, 95% CI 1.01-1.17). Breast-conserving surgery rates increased by ~20 percentage points between ER <50% and >80%. In both cohorts, the odds of BCS were similar between 70-gene low-risk and high-risk groups. Asian or uninsured patients had lower odds of BCS. CONCLUSIONS: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy is unlikely to downstage tumors with a low-intermediate RS, higher ER%/PR%, or lower Ki-67%. Breast-conserving surgery after NET was most dependent on ER%. Findings could facilitate treatment decision-making based on tumor biology and racial/socioeconomic disparities and improve patient counseling on the likelihood of successful BCS.