Low autonomic arousal as a risk factor for reoffending: A population-based study

BACKGROUND: Low resting heart rate (RHR) and low systolic blood pressure (SBP) are associated with criminal behavior. However, knowledge is lacking about their predictive value for reoffending. AIM: We aimed to examine associations of RHR and SBP with reoffending in a large population-based sample. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study of all convicted male conscripts born in Sweden 1958-1990 (N = 407,533). We obtained data by linking Swedish population-based registers. Predictor variables were RHR and SBP, measured at conscription which was mandatory until 2010 for men at age 18. The outcome variable was reoffending, defined as criminal convictions (any crime, violent crime and non-violent crime), obtained from the National Crime Register. We used survival analyses to test for associations of RHR and SBP with reoffending, adjusting for pertinent covariates such as socioeconomic status, height, weight and physical energy capacity. RESULTS: In fully adjusted Cox regression models, men with lower RHR (≤60 bpm) had higher risk of reoffending (any crime: HR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.14, 1.19, violent crime: HR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.17, 1.29, non-violent crime: HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.14, 1.19), compared to men with higher RHR (≥ 82 bpm). Men with lower SBP (≤80 mmHg) had higher risk of reoffending (any crime: HR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.17, 1.21, violent crime: HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.12, 1.20, non-violent crime: HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.18, 1.22), compared to men with higher SBP (≥138 mmHg). CONCLUSIONS: Low autonomic arousal is associated with increased risk of reoffending. RHR and SBP should be investigated further as potential predictors for reoffending as they each may have predictive value in risk assessment protocols.