Time-Lag Selection for Time-Series Forecasting Using Neural Network and Heuristic Algorithm

The time-series forecasting is a vital area that motivates continuous investigate areas of intrigued for different applications. A critical step for the time-series forecasting is the right determination of the number of past observations (lags). This paper investigates the forecasting accuracy based on the selection of an appropriate time-lag value by applying a comparative study between three methods. These methods include a statistical approach using auto correlation function, a well-known machine learning technique namely Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) along with a heuristic algorithm to optimize the choosing of time-lag value, and a parallel implementation of LSTM that dynamically choose the best prediction based on the optimal time-lag value. The methods were applied to an experimental data set, which consists of five meteorological parameters and aerosol particle number concentration. The performance metrics were: Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and R-squared. The investigation demonstrated that the proposed LSTM model with heuristic algorithm is the superior method in identifying the best time-lag value.