Estimation of haemophilia‐associated AIDS incidence in Japan using individual dates of diagnosis

This paper presents a procedure for obtaining short-term projections and lower bounds on the size of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic. The method is similar to that proposed by Brookmeyer and Gail but adapted to the situation where individual dates of AIDS diagnosis are available. It gives results that are not dependent on the choice of time intervals by contrast to the procedure proposed by Brookmeyer and Gail which was based on the tabulated number of AIDS cases. Applications are illustrated with haemophilia-associated AIDS incidence in Japan where only 45 cases have been diagnosed by 31 December 1987.