Communal heat planning: Overcoming the path-dependency of natural gas in residential heating?

To achieve climate neutrality by 2050, the EU must phase out all fossil fuels. Natural gas (NG) accounts for 25% of primary energy consumption of which 40% is used for residential heat. To prevent a lock-in of NG in residential heat, among other things, a long-term strategy for the decommissioning of the two million kilometres long distribution network is needed. Using Germany as a case study, this article investigates if communal heat planning is a suitable instrument to overcome path dependencies resulting from NG use in residential heating. In summary, communal heat planning can help to overcome some path dependencies: planning deficit/investment security, access to necessary data, development of personnel capacities and stakeholder participation. However, other institutional, infrastructural, behavioural and discursive path dependencies persist. Possible policy measures to interrupt them are outlined. The results of this study provide important insights for other EU countries.