Integrating agent-based modelling and visitor evaluation: a reflexive framework for ESG governance in tourism

How can environmental, social, and governance (ESG) systems in tourism be analysed through reflexive and methodologically integrated models? This paper advances a mixed-method framework that combines stakeholder-grounded agent-based modelling with a visitor-facing plausibility assessment to examine how different governance configurations, minimal, enforced, and community-responsive, shape sustainability outcomes in an island destination. The simulation formalises behavioural feedbacks among tourists, providers, and stylised resident dynamics, while the visitor-facing stage assesses the plausibility of these scenario logics through visitor evaluations. Together, the two stages provide exploratory evidence consistent with partly overlapping legitimacy cues, associated respectively with enforced ESG and community-responsive governance. The study illustrates how reflexivity can be operationalised in tourism research and contributes a replicable approach for integrating qualitative insight, computational modelling, and behavioural plausibility assessment. It expands methodological options for analysing adaptive governance and ESG transitions in tourism systems, while offering practical guidance for destinations and firms seeking to align ESG implementation with credible and socially responsive governance.