Hawks and Doves: Philippine foreign policy speech analysis toward the U.S. and China, 1966–2025

This study examines how Philippine presidents have rhetorically constructed foreign policy orientations toward the United States and China across nine administrations, from Ferdinand Marcos Sr. to Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (1966–2025). Using Critical Discourse Analysis and content analysis of State of the Nation Addresses (SONAs), the study maps patterns of hawkish and dovish rhetoric toward both powers. It introduces an analytical framework that combines the Hawk–Dove spectrum with [Eysenck, Hans J. 1956. Sense and Nonsense in Psychology. Harmondsworth: Pelican Books.] political spectrum model, as adapted by [Tangonan, Kevin. 2024. “Hawks & Doves: U.S.-DPRK Foreign Policy Speech Analysis and the Perception of the Other.” Journal of Global and Area Studies 8 (2): 335–358.], to analyse the relationship between ideological orientation and foreign-policy discourse. Beyond presidential rhetoric, the study examines patterns of reciprocal diplomatic signalling through official U.S. and Chinese statements and embassy communications. The findings reveal that Philippine presidents frequently depart from expected ideological patterns, with liberal and conservative leaders alike adopting both hawkish and dovish rhetorical positions toward China. These results suggest that foreign-policy discourse is shaped less by ideological identity than by leadership style, strategic context, and the highly personalised nature of political leadership in the Philippines. Rather than replacing structural explanations such as hedging, the study complements existing scholarship by demonstrating how foreign-policy orientations are publicly framed, justified, and communicated through presidential discourse.