Non-violence in ethnic relations in Estonia

The Soviet Union's collapse left in its wake many vexing problems, of which few have attracted as much attention as the tensions between nationalities. The Baltic republics were in the forefront of efforts to win independence from Moscow and enact reforms. Due to this vanguard role, accessibility to visitors, and links with exiles in Western lands, the Baltic countries' handling of the nationalities problem after regaining independence has attracted disproportionate scrutiny. Yet observers tend to make merely incidental remarks about one truly noteworthy aspect of relations between nationalities in these republics today: the absence of violence. Doomsayers suggest it is only a matter of time before an explosion occurs. Others take it for granted that the Baltic states will handle things in a civilized manner, and find nothing unexpected in the course of events so far. Careful consideration of possible reasons for the remarkably peaceful relations between nationalities in these countries would enable us to reach more informed decisions about the prospects for maintaining this pattern and lessons other countries might draw from the Baltic experience. This report examines the situation in Estonia, with emphasis on the relations between the Estonian and Russian nationalities. It is the tension between just these groups that has attracted the most attention in the Baltic area recently. Russian officials alleged mistreatment of Russians in Estonia and threatened to delay die departure of troops from the country, after reaching agreements on withdrawals with Latvia and Lithuania. The Baltic country where nationalities problems generated the most fuss but minimal bloodshed deserves a close look, in the quest to identify conditions that hinder eruption of violence in ethnic relations. Another reason to focus on Estonia is that its demographic situation is intermediate. Lithuanians constitute an overwhelming 80% of the population in their land, but the majority in Estonia is smaller (under 65%) and more worried about survival, while the Russian minority may see greater prospects for successful resistance to nationalist policies. In Latvia, the natives are a bare majority and the Russian minority is the largest in all the Baltic states, so a certain balance of power may restrain both sides from taking precipitous actions. A theory discussed below suggests that the potential for violence is greatest in a situation like Estonia's, where the power ratio is at an