Forecasting of vertical temperature profiles in the atmosphere during nocturnal radiation inversions from air temperature trend at screen height

A theoretical model for vertical distribution of air temperature in lower layers during night‐time calm periods has been developed by modifying some boundary conditions of the classical Brunt's model, on the ground of a more realistic behaviour of low atmosphere. The model allows the vertical temperature profile to be deduced from screen data records and it fits with experimental data collected from a meteorological tower better than the classical model. Radiative heat exchange is assumed to play the principal role, with diffusion thermal coefficient constant with height and time; previous work has shown that such an assumption holds true in the Po Valley air flow, when sky is cloudless and winds are light.