Paleoseismology and Global Positioning System: Earthquake-cycle effects and geodetic versus geologic fault slip rates in the Eastern California shear zone

Published slip rates for the Owens Valley fault zone in eastern California based on geodetic data and elastic half-space models (5–7 mm/yr) are faster than longer term geologic rates (2–3 mm/yr). We use Global Positioning System data spanning the central Owens Valley, a more realistic rheological model with an elastic upper crust over a viscoelastic lower crust and upper mantle, and paleoseismic data from adjacent faults, to show that this difference could reflect earthquake-cycle effects. We estimate a long-term rate (2.1 ± 0.7 mm/yr) and earthquake recurrence interval (2750 +350/−1000 yr) from the geodetic data, both in agreement with independent geologic estimates.