Spatio-temporal change of the morphology in west corridor development region of Ankara city and 2022-2039 growth estimation

The land is needed for many activities in cities due to rapid urbanization and population growth taking place on a global scale.In order to meet the demands of the increasing population, cities grow towards extensive rural lands and try to meet the citizens' needs for land spatially used for housing, transportation, industrial facilities, and education facilities.The change in urban morphology is one of the most discussed topics in planning from the past to the present, consisting of uniquely complex phenomena.The traditional method of urban science offers approaches based on Euclidean geometry, based on the assumption of uniform growth.However, urban morphology has a multidimensional fractal structure, and it is insufficient to understand the city as a living organism that evolves, changes, and develops very quickly.Since urban growth and expansion are an inevitable reality intertwined with economic growth, spatial changes in cities as living organisms are inevitable.Population growth worldwide is one of the most critical parameters affecting cities' growth.Unplanned growth in cities causes many environmental problems, such as unplanned urbanization.Monitoring and forecasting land changes in urban growth and expansion processes are significant in producing effective regional and urban planning policies.In this process, the concept of urban morphology comes to the fore.In this context, the fractal dimension analysis emerges as a technique of interest.Decreases and increases in fractal values gain meaning by being associated with processes such as expansion and growth observed in cities. Fractal geometry, on the other hand, provides the opportunity to evaluate this complex structure quantitatively.At the same time, it offers a new mathematical framework for describing urban morphology.The study aimed to investigate the development process of the development zone in the western corridor of Ankara, with a fractal analysis to be made at the urban scale through its morphological change.The temporal changes in urban form and texture between 2005-2022 and the morphological character of Ankara are questioned through fractal analysis.The study was carried out in two stages.In the first stage, the western corridor of Ankara was analyzed on an urban scale, and the morphological change in 2039 was estimated within the scope of two different scenarios.The compact growing scenario (G C ) proposes a growth model within the boundaries of the determined area.The spreading-growing scenario (G S ) assumes a spreading-growth behavior into the land cover, regardless of field boundaries.The G C scenario defines areas where growth will not occur outside the determined western development zone.On the other hand, the G S covers the growth areas produced by assuming that the entire urban geography is suitable for settlement without any restrictions.