An analysis of Russian international air traffic in times of war: What structural changes have emerged and who benefits from Western sanctions?

We examine key air transport developments caused by Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine and subsequent sanctions on the civil aviation sector. Western countries imposed flight bans and visa restrictions on Russian airlines and individuals in early 2022, while Russia retaliated by restricting its airspace to airlines from 36 countries. We use origin-destination (booking) and flight supply (schedule) data to assess shifts in traffic volumes, destination countries, and airline nationalities and revenues. Our analysis reveals a sharp decline in international origin-destination traffic from Russia, from 27.4 million passengers in 2019 to 14.5 million in 2023. (Now fully indirect) travel to Western Europe and North America has decreased by 94% and 86%, respectively, while traffic to non-sanctioning countries in Central Asia, the Gulf or Türkiye has increased considerably, leading to strong revenue growth for airlines from these countries. The findings give sime evidence to the wider economic and political complexities of sanctions, raising questions about their effectiveness and the unintended economic consequences for both the imposing and the sanctioned countries.