Short-term emission pathways in India’s iron and steel sector: A hybrid framework combining quantitative methods and bottom-up modelling.

This study presents a hybrid assessment framework to quantify current greenhouse gas emissions and evaluate decarbonization pathways for India's iron and steel industry up to 2030. The framework establishes a sectoral emissions baseline and examines the impact of alternative mitigation scenarios, providing a foundation for long-term decarbonization planning beyond 2030. The industry was categorized into two segments: major integrated steel producers, representing more than 57% of national crude steel output, and other producers, comprising predominantly electric-route and small-to-medium-scale operations. Emission intensity estimates for major producers were derived from reported production and emissions data, whereas emissions from other producers were assessed using a bottom-up, process-based estimation. The study estimated the baseline emission intensity for financial year 2023-24 at 2.31 tCO₂/tcs, with major producers averaging 2.53 tCO₂/tcs and other (secondary) producers operating at a lower intensity of 2.02 tCO₂/tcs. Six scenarios were modelled through 2030, revealing that a combination of 30% scrap use and 50% renewable electricity offer the most effective short-term mitigation, reducing intensity to 1.66 tCO₂/tcs. While emissions from major producers remain largely stable, most reductions are driven by secondary producers, highlighting their greater decarbonization potential. Despite these improvements in carbon intensity, projected growth in steel production is expected to increase total sectoral emissions by approximately 20–74% by 2030, depending on the scenario considered.