Unlocking renewables amid rentierism: Market constraints to Nigeria's energy transition

Tackling climate change requires a rapid transition to renewable energy (RE). However, resource rents and subsidies present multiple challenges to the energy transition in fossil fuel-rich countries. Here, we analyze the complex but often overlooked constraints to utility-scale RE investment in Nigeria, combining qualitative data from 24 interviews with administrative data from public and private stakeholders. Using the Structure-Conduct-Performance-Regulation (SCPR) framework and the Rentier State Theory (RST), we identify three mutually reinforcing constraints related to stakeholder distrust, a monopolistic wholesale market, and a protracted subsidy regime that impede utility-scale RE investment in Nigeria. Bold policy reforms are needed to promote competition, attract investment, improve the efficiency of the market, and meet the country's clean energy goals.