Quantitative Model to Forecast Changes in Hurricane Vulnerability of Regional Building Inventory

This paper introduces a quantitative methodology to model the way the hurricane wind vulnerability of a region’s building inventory changes over time due, for example, to aging, structural upgrading efforts, construction and demolition of buildings, and changing materials, construction technologies, and building code content and enforcement. The model aims to explore the overall rate of vulnerability change and the relative contributions of various societal and natural factors affecting it, and ultimately to be incorporated into regional risk assessment models. Current risk assessment models assume that a region’s vulnerability remains constant over time. The methodology combines a component-based building vulnerability model, simulation, and Markov modeling. The vulnerability changes are represented by changes in the form of fragility curves over time. A limited scope sample analysis is presented for a model residential, wood-frame building category in North Carolina. The sample analysis addresses vulnerability changes due to building code changes only, and includes an investigation of the sensitivity of the results to several key parameters.