Could the Australian Greens go suburban?

A largely unrecognised phenomenon in recent elections in Australia has been the simultaneous underperformance of the Greens in their inner-city heartland and growth in surrounding electorates that stretch out to the suburbs. This paper sets out this phenomenon in detail, enabling its interrogation. Following the 2022 ‘Green wave’ that saw the party gain three additional lower house seats, in 2025, efforts to expand this presence by targeting the next most likely electorates to fall failed and three seats were lost. Despite swings away from the Greens in both held and targeted inner-city electorates, their vote remained stable due to swings towards them elsewhere – largely in inner/outer metro and suburban electorates held by the Labor Party – suggesting their support base is realigning. This paper sets out recent changes in the Greens’ vote, explores cases that demonstrate potential realignment, and considers the questions this raises for the party’s targeting strategy.