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August 8, 2026Health Economics Policy and LawOpen Access

An investment too good to be true?: Reassessing the World Health Organization and World Bank return-on-investment estimates for pandemic preparedness

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Authors

GBGarrett Wallace BrownJAJean von AgrisBTBlagovesta Tacheva

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Overview

Perspective examines WHO and World Bank investment estimates for pandemic prevention, highlighting flawed assumptions and implications for equity.

Key Points

  • This perspective evaluates the WHO and World Bank's return-on-investment estimates for pandemic preparedness and their underlying assumptions.
  • Examined investment needs of US$31.1 billion in pandemic prevention and preparedness via WHO and World Bank estimates.
  • Evaluated assumptions and baselines used for return-on-investment calculations.
  • Critically analyzed economic impacts of comparator diseases versus pandemic interventions.
  • Identified problematic assumptions inflating return-on-investment estimates.
  • Noted undervaluation of economic impacts from comparator diseases, undermining equity concerns.
  • Concluded that current estimates are under-evidenced and unreliable for policymaking.

Cite This Study

Brown et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a76db01f12abadc79815cdahttps://doi.org/10.1017/s174413312610067x
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