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Explores how river changes affect flood hazards in Brazilian rivers, suggesting integrated management approaches.
Quantifying the interplay between streamflow dynamics and river morphology is essential to fully characterize changes in flood hazard. Here, we analyse how changes in flow frequency and channel conveyance capacity shape flood hazard of 479 Brazilian rivers. We estimate trends in daily flow, changes in channel capacity and trends in mean bed elevation on a decadal scale from 1930 to 2018. Our results show that the effect of trends in channel conveyance capacity on flood hazard is greater than that of flow frequency across most stations. Changes in channel conveyance capacity are mostly explained by changes in channel bed elevation, which have been intensified especially in arid regions and in basins characterized by a high degree of flow regulation. These results highlight the need to consider the simultaneous effects of changes in both river morphology and flood frequency in flood hazard projections.
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Perez et al. (2026) studied this question.
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