Egocentric Bias in Estimates of Consensus

Summary This study compared the preceptual distortion and motivational explanations of egocentric bias in estimates of consensus. Ss were contestants in the television game show “Play the Percentages.” This nonlaboratory situation offered compelling incentives (thousands of dollars in cash and prizes) for accurate estimates of consensus. It was reasoned that if Ss had accurate estimates of consensus at their disposal, they would have utilized them to obtain the incentives. Nonetheless, previously observed egocentric biases (false consensus and the minority's overestimation of consensus) were found. These results indicated that an egocentric bias in estimates of consensus was more likely a result of perceptual distortion than of motivational strategies.