Measuring Unexpected Hospital Demand: The Application of a Univariate Model to Public Hospitals in Greece

The accurate forecasting of hospital demand is an important issue in many countries. The author applied a univariate model using hospital daily emergency admissions of 10 public hospitals in Athens, Greece, during the period 2001-2005. Unexpected demand varied considerably among hospital units in Greece, and its volatility over time was low. Managerial and organizational characteristics of the hospital, the easy accessibility by the patients, its reputation, and the size of the hospital were possible explanations for these variations. The Ministry of Health should undertake policies in order to smooth out the variations in unexpected demand among the Greek public hospitals.