Unrecorded alcohol consumption in Ontario, Canada: estimation procedures and research implications

In 1975 the amount of alcohol consumed through unrecorded sources in Ontario was estimated to be between 4% and 6% of overall consumption of absolute alcohol. Population surveys and other data sources were used to produce more recent estimates of the amount of alcohol consumed through U‐brew and U‐vint production, home brewing, cross‐border shopping and illegal channels. Based on converging extimates, consumption of absolute alcohol from unrecorded sources is now estimated to be about 19.5%. Generally, the data provide more support for the substitution model rather than the additive model, as declines in official sales data appear to have coincided with increases in consumption from unrecorded sources. The implications of unrecorded consumption from a research and public health perspective are discussed.