Predicting land-use dynamics in the Venlo-Düsseldorf borderland: a GIS-based study

This study analyses land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes in the cross-border region of Venlo (Netherlands) and Düsseldorf (Germany) over the past two decades, using CORINE land cover data and GIS-based CA-Markov simulations. It presents a novel framework for understanding the dynamics of urban expansion and its impacts on the environment in cross-border metropolitan regions. The findings reveal a significant increase in built-up areas and a critical loss of agricultural lands and natural habitats, driven by rapid urbanization, population growth, and socio-economic development. These changes fragment ecosystems and raise flood risk and soil erosion, and biodiversity lost. Based on these results, the study underscores the need for integrated urban planning strategies that promote sustainable urban growth, ecosystem-based land management, and cross-border policy coordination. The study’s key recommendation is harmonizing planning policies between the Netherlands and Germany to protect natural land covers while accommodating urban development. Thereby, through aligning urban expansion with environmental conservation goals, the study highlights pathways for building resilience in cross-border territories, ensuring sustainable and ecologically responsible growth.