Mathematical modeling suggests that areas with high fecal-oral transmission potential will become vulnerable to outbreaks from OPV seed strain releases within 5-10 years of OPV cessation, despite IPV use.
AIM: Assess risks related to breaches of poliovirus containment. METHOD: Using a dynamic transmission model, we explore the variability among different populations in the vulnerability to poliovirus containment breaches as population immunity to transmission declines after oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation. RESULTS: Although using OPV instead of wild poliovirus (WPV) seed strains for inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) production offers some expected risk reintroduction of live polioviruses from IPV manufacturing facilities, OPV seed strain releases may become a significant threat within 5-10 years of OPV cessation in areas most conducive to fecal-oral poliovirus transmission, regardless of IPV use. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to quantify the risks demonstrate the challenges associated with understanding and managing relatively low-probability and high-consequence containment failure events.
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Tebbens et al. (2018) studied Poliovirus containment breaches. Oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation and inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) use was evaluated on Time until net reproduction number (Rn) exceeds 1.
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