Identification of Disaster-Vulnerable Communities by Use of Census Data Prior to the Great East Japan Earthquake

OBJECTIVES: The role of the community is becoming increasingly recognized as a crucial determinant of human health, particularly during a disaster and during disaster recovery. To identify disaster-vulnerable communities, we sought factors related to communities in need of support by using census information from before the Great East Japan Earthquake. METHODS: We identified vulnerable communities by using a needs-assessment survey conducted 6 to 12 months after the Great East Japan Earthquake in Ishinomaki City, Miyagi Prefecture, as indicated by higher proportions of households with at least 1 of 3 major support needs (medical, elderly, psychological, and dwelling environment). The associations between the need for support and 9 demographic characteristics of the community from census data prior to the Great East Japan Earthquake were examined for 71 communities by use of logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The need for elderly support was positively associated with the proportions of aged people (odds ratio [OR]=1.5; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-1.8) and one-person households (OR=1.3; 95% CI: 1.0-1.7), whereas the need for psychological support was associated with the proportion of people engaged in agriculture (OR=4.6; 95% CI: 1.0-20.7). The proportion of fisheries was negatively associated with the need for dwelling environment support (OR=0.5; 95% CI: 0.3-0.9). CONCLUSIONS: The consideration of simple demographic characteristics from the census may be useful for identifying vulnerable communities and preparing for future disasters.