Comparing the Predictive Validity of First Grade Teacher Ratings and Reading-Related Tests on Third Grade Levels of Reading Skills in Young Children Exposed to Poverty

The purpose of this study was to compare the relative utility of teacher ratings versus several kinds of reading-related tests measured in the spring of first grade in predicting third grade levels of reading skills in a sample of predominantly ethnic minority children exposed to poverty (N = 170). The reading-related tests included measures of children's print and vocabulary knowledge and phonological awareness. Linear regression analyses indicated that, in general, teacher ratings predicted later individual differences in reading ability with similar accuracy to that of the reading-related tests. Children were next classified as either reading impaired or normally achieving based on their standardized reading scores in third grade. Logistic regression analyses demonstrated that the first grade teacher ratings classified children into third grade reading groups with a high level of accuracy (at least 73% of the sample correctly identified) and comparable to classification based on reading-related test performance. The results provide strong support for the utility of teacher ratings as a relatively efficient and cost effective method for early identification of disadvantaged children at high risk of developing reading failure.