A Testable Five-Year Forecast of Moderate and Large Earthquakes in Southern California Based on Smoothed Seismicity

Research Article| January 01, 2007 A Testable Five-Year Forecast of Moderate and Large Earthquakes in Southern California Based on Smoothed Seismicity Yan Y. Kagan; Yan Y. Kagan Department of Earth and Space Sciences University of California-Los Angeles Los Angeles, California 90095-1567 USA ykagan@ucla.edu (Y.Y.K.) djackson@ucla.edu (D.D.J.) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar David D. Jackson; David D. Jackson Department of Earth and Space Sciences University of California-Los Angeles Los Angeles, California 90095-1567 USA ykagan@ucla.edu (Y.Y.K.) djackson@ucla.edu (D.D.J.) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Yufang Rong Yufang Rong AIR-Worldwide Corporation Boston, Massachusetts 02116 USA yrong@air-worldwide.com (Y.R.) Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Seismological Research Letters (2007) 78 (1): 94–98. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.78.1.94 Article history first online: 09 Mar 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Yan Y. Kagan, David D. Jackson, Yufang Rong; A Testable Five-Year Forecast of Moderate and Large Earthquakes in Southern California Based on Smoothed Seismicity. Seismological Research Letters 2007;; 78 (1): 94–98. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.78.1.94 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietySeismological Research Letters Search Advanced Search We present a five-year forecast of southern California earthquakes with magnitudes 5.0 and greater. The forecast uses earthquake data only, with no explicit use of tectonic, geologic, or geodetic information. The forecast is based on observed regularity of earthquake occurrence rather than on any physical model. The earthquake rate density (probability per unit area, time, and magnitude) is assumed constant in time. We estimate it as the sum of contributions from all magnitude 5 and larger earthquakes in our catalog, which for large quakes extends from 1800 to the present. The contribution from each quake is inversely proportional to epicentral... You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.