Unveiling how financial markets could intensify climate change risks

This paper proposes a sustainable finance-based methodology to assess climate change vulnerability in Spain's key economic sectors. It pioneers a panel database merging biophysical, economic, and financial data, analysing private sales responses to climate change. Employing the RCP4.5 scenario, aligned with the EU's 2030 climate policy, it forecasts 10-year financial and economic variables via autoregressive neural networks, emphasizing confidence intervals across scenarios. The obtained results highlight the complexity of climate impacts on business revenues, the importance of considering both climate and financial variables, and the need for business adaptation and resilience in the face of climate change.