The Accuracy of Public Beliefs about Crime

Studies of public beliefs about crime often assert that there is a marked discrepancy between public beliefs about crime and objective conditions, a discrepancy at least partially attributable to media coverage of crime. Data from four independent sample surveys of the adult residents of a major Southwestern metropolitan area indicate that any general statement about the accuracy of public beliefs about crime may be premature. Respondents were asked to estimate the number of offenses reported to the police for each of 17 offenses. The relation between the perceived incidence and the official incidence of the offenses is described by a power function, the parameters of which are highly replicable across the surveys. Although there is systematic distortion, the overall degree of accuracy is remarkable. Alternative explanations of that accuracy are examined, and an explanation based on additional evidence is proposed.