Key result
Global lifetime risk of developing colorectal cancer stands at ~2.7%, varying significantly by region.
Why the study?
Colorectal cancer is the third most common cancer and second leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide, but regional and national variations in lifetime risk required estimation.
Observational
Yes
The global lifetime risk of developing colorectal cancer is 2.69%, with significant disparities based on geography and Human Development Index, emphasizing the need for context-specific prevention strategies.
Documents wide regional and HDI-linked variations in lifetime CRC risk; leaves open targeted prevention and screening trials.
OBJECTIVE: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. This study was aimed at estimating regional and national variations in lifetime CRC risk worldwide. METHODS: CRC data were extracted from GLOBOCAN 2022, including 185 countries, and population and all-cause mortality data were sourced from the United Nations. The world was divided into 20 geographical regions and categorized by Human Development Index (HDI). Lifetime CRC risk was estimated with the life table method, adjusted for multiple primary cancers. RESULTS: In 2022, the lifetime risks of developing and dying from CRC were 2.69% [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.68-2.70] and 1.39% (95% CI: 1.39-1.40), respectively. Men had a higher risk of colon cancer than rectal cancer, and higher CRC risk than women. Lifetime risk varied by region and HDI: regions with very high, high, moderate, and low HDI had incidence risks of 5.17%, 2.75%, 0.72%, and 0.57%, respectively, and mortality risks of 2.48%, 1.50%, 0.44%, and 0.41%, respectively. Australia/New Zealand had the highest incidence risk (7.41%, 95% CI: 7.30-7.52), and Northern Europe the highest mortality risk (3.28%, 95% CI: 3.24-3.32). Risks were stable before 40 years of age, peaked in middle age, and declined after 70 years of age. Temporally, Thailand had the highest increasing trend in lifetime risk, whereas the United States and Austria showed a decreasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: Lifetime CRC risk differs by subtype, sex, HDI, and geography, and residual risk gradually decreases with age. Targeted primary prevention strategies should be implemented in various countries and regions to mitigate CRC burden.
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Li et al. (2026) conducted an observational in Colorectal cancer. Geographic region and Human Development Index was evaluated on Lifetime risk of developing and dying from colorectal cancer. In 2022, the global lifetime risk of developing colorectal cancer was 2.69% (95% CI: 2.68-2.70) and dying from it was 1.39% (95% CI: 1.39-1.40), with significant variation by region and HDI.
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