Modelling ecosystem service trends under contrasting Dutch peatland and agricultural land-use futures

Land-use change (LUC) has consistently led to the degradation of natural ecosystems, thereby harming critical associated ecosystem services. Such effects have been particularly pronounced on key ecosystem services provided by peatlands such as carbon storage, nutrient regulation, and water retention. In this study we have used InVEST® models to quantify and map key ecosystem services to understand the impact of land use change in the region surrounding the Dutch Fochteloërveen peatland in 2050 and 2100. For this, we identified three contrasting scenarios representing the prioritisation of agricultural production, widespread nature-based solution (NbS) implementation, and a middle-of-the-road approach. Our results highlighted the significant potential NbS (particularly on peatlands) have to fulfil European and Dutch environmental goals. Improved ecosystem service synergies and economic benefits from implemented NbS may also help the financial and political feasibility of such LUC. Meanwhile, agricultural expansion caused widespread degradation of the assessed ecosystem services. Similarly, incorporating competing conservation and agricultural production initiatives led to significant opportunity costs: water retention and nutrient regulation only improved marginally by 2100, while carbon storage capacity declined. These results further stress the importance of stricter agricultural zoning, nutrient regulations, and policy coherence towards conservation and restoration for the Netherlands and abroad. Nevertheless, greater stakeholder involvement and the evaluation of a wider ecosystem services range are likely needed to reach the required confidence for policy to pursue widespread peatland NbS implementation.