Precursor mechanisms of ecological modernising waves: Chile's just energy transition and environmental and social recovery policies

In Chile, as in other extractive economies, the development of environmental institutions reflects the urgency of the global ecological crisis and the tensions generated by resource-dependent development. Drawing on neo-institutionalism and ecological modernisation theory, we propose modernising waves as an analytical lens for examining institutional reforms, and we introduce the original concept of precursor mechanisms. These are understood as political-practical articulations that embed new criteria and discourses in an anticipatory manner, thereby enabling the rise of a new wave. Previous research has identified two modernising waves in Chile, corresponding to the 1990s and the 2010 reform. Building on this, we analyse the incipient emergence of a third wave, linked to the Framework Law on Climate Change and anticipated by two precursor mechanisms: i) the Environmental and Social Recovery Programme and ii) the Just Energy Transition Policy. This framework demonstrates how institutional reconfiguration in the Global South unfolds contingently and through anticipatory practices.